{"id":146,"date":"2026-03-13T07:55:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T23:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cyber3hk.com\/wordpress\/?p=146"},"modified":"2026-03-13T07:55:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T23:55:00","slug":"2026-%e5%b9%b4-3-%e6%9c%88-11-%e6%97%a5%e3%80%8apeter-lewis-money-talk%e3%80%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cyber3hk.com\/wordpress\/?p=146","title":{"rendered":"2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708 11 \u65e5\u300aPeter Lewis\u2019 Money Talk\u300b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/open.substack.com\/pub\/peterlewismoneytalk\/p\/peter-lewis-money-talk-wednesday-03f?utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web\">https:\/\/open.substack.com\/pub\/peterlewismoneytalk\/p\/peter-lewis-money-talk-wednesday-03f?utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web<\/a><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7bc0\u76ee\u4e3b\u8981\u5167\u5bb9\u6982\u89bd<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4e3b\u984c\u570d\u7e5e\u300c\u7f8e\u4f0a\u6230\u722d\u3001\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u53d7\u963b \u2192 \u539f\u6cb9\u8207\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4f9b\u61c9\u885d\u64ca \u2192 \u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u3001\u901a\u8139\u8207\u8870\u9000\u98a8\u96aa\uff08\u985e\u6eef\u8139\uff09\u300d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5609\u8cd3\uff1aDavid Roche\uff08Quantum Strategy \u7e3d\u88c1\u517c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\uff09\u3001Andrew Sullivan\uff08Asian Market Sense \u5275\u8fa6\u4eba\uff09\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u90e8\u5206\u7531 CLSA \u65e5\u672c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b Nick Smith \u63d0\u4f9b\u89c0\u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u570b\u969b\u5c40\u52e2\u8207\u6cb9\u50f9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7f8e\u4f0a\u6230\u722d\u8207\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8868\u614b<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e00\u5ea6\u98c6\u5347\u81f3\u8fd1\u6bcf\u6876 120 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c0d\u5916\u8072\u7a31\u300c\u7f8e\u4f0a\u6230\u722d\u5f88\u5feb\u7d50\u675f\u3001\u53ea\u662f\u9032\u5c55\u8d85\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5c0f\u9060\u5f81\u300d\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u5b89\u64ab\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u53c8\u8aaa\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u4ecd\u672a\u5b8c\u7d50\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u8207\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6d77\u5cfd\u5be6\u8cea\u63a5\u8fd1\u88ab\u95dc\u9589\uff0c\u6cb9\u8f2a\u96e3\u4ee5\u9032\u51fa\uff0c\u6c99\u5730\u3001\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u3001\u963f\u806f\u914b\u3001\u79d1\u5a01\u7279\u5408\u5171\u524a\u6e1b\u7d04 670 \u842c\u6876\/\u65e5\u7522\u91cf\uff0c\u7d04\u4f54\u5168\u7403 6%\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9664\u77f3\u6cb9\u5916\uff0c\u7d04 38% \u5168\u7403\u5316\u80a5\u8207 13% \u5168\u7403\u7a40\u7269\u4ea6\u7d93\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u904b\u8f38\uff0c\u885d\u64ca\u65e5\u5f8c\u7ce7\u98df\u548c\u80a5\u6599\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u6b50\u6d32\u64ad\u7a2e\u5b63\u7bc0\u5c07\u53d7\u58d3\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6230\u7565\u8207\u5546\u696d\u5132\u6cb9<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>David \u6307\u51fa\u6c11\u9593\u8207\u6230\u7565\u5132\u6cb9\u52a0\u8d77\u4f86\u7d04 60 \u5104\u6876\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u53ef\u9802\u66ff\u6d77\u7063\u7d04 2,000 \u842c\u6876\/\u65e5\u4f9b\u61c9 200\u2013300 \u65e5\uff0c\u4f46\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\u7269\u6d41\u8207\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7e3d\u91cf\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e2d\u671f\u4ecd\u9700\u6062\u5fa9\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u822a\u904b\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u6383\u96f7\u3001\u5c0e\u5f48\u9632\u79a6\u53ca\u4ee5\u300c\u6253\u4f60\u5169\u8258\u6cb9\u8f2a\u5687\u963b\u300d\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c0d\u4f0a\u6717\u65bd\u58d3\uff0c\u4ee5\u91cd\u555f\u90e8\u5206\u822a\u904b\u6d41\u91cf\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7121\u4eba\u6a5f\u6230\u8207\u6d77\u4e0a\u98a8\u96aa<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Andrew \u6307\u51fa\u73fe\u4ee3\u6230\u722d\u4e0d\u518d\u9760\u50b3\u7d71\u5e03\u96f7\u8239\uff0c\u5ec9\u50f9\u6a5f\u52d5\u6c34\u4e2d\uff0f\u7a7a\u4e2d\u7121\u4eba\u6a5f\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u5c0d\u9ed1\u6d77\u8266\u968a\u7684\u6253\u6cd5\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>David \u88dc\u5145\u7f8e\u8ecd\u66fe\u5728\u7d05\u6d77\u4ee5\u591a\u8258\u795e\u76fe\u9a45\u9010\u8266\u69cb\u6210\u9632\u79a6\u7246\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6514\u622a\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88dd\u7121\u4eba\u6a5f\u6210\u529f\u7387\u300c\u63a5\u8fd1 100%\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u8ecd\u65bc\u6d77\u7063\u5df2\u7121\u6383\u96f7\u8266\uff0c\u66b4\u9732\u6e96\u5099\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e2d\u570b\u8cbf\u6613\u8207\u4e9e\u6d32\u60c5\u6cc1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4e2d\u570b\u51fa\u53e3\u5f37\u52c1<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4eca\u5e74 1\u20132 \u6708\u4e2d\u570b\u51fa\u53e3\u6309\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u8fd1 22%\uff0c\u7d04\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f 3 \u500d\uff1b\u9032\u53e3\u4ea6\u5347\u8fd1 20%\uff0c\u8cbf\u6613\u9806\u5dee\u5275\u7d04 2,140 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0 AI \u76f8\u95dc\u96fb\u5b50\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u96c6\u6210\u96fb\u8def\u53ca\u6c7d\u8eca\u9700\u6c42\u5f37\u52c1\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1 \u6708\u55ae\u6708\u51fa\u53e3\u662f\u6709\u7d00\u9304\u4ee5\u4f86\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9ad8\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e2d\u570b\u51fa\u53e3\u6a5f\u5668\u4ecd\u300c\u706b\u529b\u5168\u958b\u300d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4e9e\u6d32\u80a1\u5e02\u8868\u73fe<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u56de\u843d\u5e36\u52d5\u4e9e\u592a\u80a1\u5e02\u53cd\u5f48\uff1a\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>MSCI \u4e9e\u592a\u6307\u6578\u5347\u8fd1 3%\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5357\u97d3 KOSPI \u5347 5.4%\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u65e5\u7d93 225 \u5347 2.9%\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b CSI 300 \u5347 1.3%\uff0c\u6e2f\u80a1\u6052\u6307\u5347 2.2% \u81f3 25,960 \u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4e9e\u6d32\u4e2d\u9577\u7dda\u677f\u584a<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Andrew \u8a8d\u70ba\u4e9e\u6d32\u4ecd\u6709\u5177\u524d\u666f\u677f\u584a\uff1a\u7a00\u571f\u3001\u8cb4\u91d1\u5c6c\uff08\u907f\u96aa\uff09\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d8a\u5357\u3001\u67ec\u57d4\u5be8\u3001\u6cf0\u570b\u7b49\u63d0\u4f9b\u300c\u8863\u670d\u3001\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u300d\u7b49\u57fa\u672c\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u7684\u751f\u7522\u57fa\u5730\uff0c\u5c07\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u5c0d\u65e5\u5e38\u7528\u54c1\u7684\u7a69\u5b9a\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u8cc7\u7522\u8868\u73fe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7f8e\u80a1\u8207\u50b5\u5e02<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7f8e\u80a1\u5468\u4e8c\u5148\u5347\u5f8c\u56de\uff1a\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6536\u8dcc 0.2% \u5831 6,781 \u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9053\u6307\u8dcc 0.1% \u5831 47,707 \u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7d0d\u6307\u5fae\u5347 1 \u9ede\u81f3 22,697 \u9ede\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u82af\u7247\u7b49\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u652f\u6490\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7f8e\u570b 10 \u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u5347 5 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u81f3 4.16%\uff0c2 \u5e74\u671f\u5347\u81f3 3.59%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u8207\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u5347\u6eab\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u532f\u7387\u8207\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7f8e\u532f\u6307\u6578\u9023\u5347\u7b2c\u4e09\u65e5\uff0c\u81f3 98.94\uff1b\u65e5\u5713\u8dcc\u81f3\u7d04 158 \u514c 1 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u96e2\u5cb8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u7d04 6.88\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9ec3\u91d1\u5347 1% \u81f3\u6bcf\u5b89\u58eb\u7d04 5,192 \u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u986f\u7136\u7bc0\u76ee\u4e2d\u4ee5\u65b0\u9ad8\u9ec3\u91d1\u50f9\u683c\u4f5c\u5047\u8a2d\u60c5\u666f\uff1b\u6574\u9ad4\u8ad6\u8abf\u662f\u300c\u9ec3\u91d1\u91cd\u7372\u907f\u96aa\u5438\u5f15\u300d\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Brent \u539f\u6cb9\u5728 81\u201395 \u7f8e\u5143\u5340\u9593\u6ce2\u52d5\u5f8c\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u6536\u8dcc\u7d04 11.3% \u81f3 87.8 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5b89\u64ab\u8a00\u8ad6\u8207\u91cb\u653e\u5132\u6cb9\u7b49\u884c\u52d5\u6709\u6240\u53cd\u61c9\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u56de\u5347 1.7% \u81f3\u7d04 70,250 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u80a1\u5e02\u300c\u5b89\u5168\u8cc7\u7522\u300d\u8207\u9ec3\u91d1<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>David \u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u300c\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u7968 = \u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u7968\uff1b\u7f8e\u80a1 = \u7279\u6717\u666e\u300d\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u8868\u73fe\u8207\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u6cbb\u547d\u904b\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7d81\u5b9a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u82e5\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8072\u671b\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u672a\u4f86\u52a0\u7a05\u53ca\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u597d\u8655\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5c07\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u8dcc\u5e45\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u53ea\u662f\u96e2\u9ad8\u4f4d\u8dcc\u7d04\u4e00\u6210\u591a\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u300c\u4ecd\u672a\u53cd\u6620\u5b8c\u300d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1a\u7576\u524d\u968e\u6bb5\u4e0d\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u8f49\u5411\u9ec3\u91d1\u7b49\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u8f03\u5408\u9069\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u3001\u50b5\u5e02\u8207\u6eef\u8139\u98a8\u96aa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u8207\u570b\u50b5\u554f\u984c<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7f8e\u570b\u9810\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u672c\u8eab\u5df2\u975e\u5e38\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u6230\u722d\u524d\u5c31\u8d70\u5728\u300c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u300d\u8ecc\u9053\u4e0a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u95dc\u7a05\u6536\u5165\uff08IEPA\uff09\u7d04 1,400 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u5df2\u88ab\u53d6\u6d88\uff0c\u4e26\u9700\u9000\u56de\u7d66\u652f\u4ed8\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u652f\u4ed8\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u64f4\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9084\u5e0c\u671b\uff1a\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u589e\u52a0\u7d04 5,000 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u8ecd\u8cbb\uff0c\u91cd\u5efa\u6d88\u8017\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u5eab\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5411\u5408\u8cc7\u683c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u6d3e\u767c 2,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u300c\u8056\u8a95\u652f\u7968\u300d\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u6c11\u7cb9\u5f0f\u62c9\u7968\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6eef\u8139\uff08Stagflation\uff09\u98a8\u96aa<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff1a\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u53d7\u963b \u2192 \u6cb9\u3001\u80a5\u6599\u3001\u7a40\u7269\u7b49\u7269\u6d41\u6210\u672c\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347 \u2192 \u751f\u7522\u8207\u904b\u8f38\u6210\u672c\u5168\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\uff08\u8ca8\u6a5f\u3001\u8ca8\u8f2a\u3001\u5361\u8eca\u3001\u92c1\u696d\u3001\u8fb2\u696d\u7b49\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6210\u672c\u63a8\u52d5\u901a\u8139\uff1aDavid \u4ee5\u672c\u4eba\u8a02\u6a5f\u7968\u4f8b\u5b50\uff08Ryanair 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