2025年6月20日 港股盤前資訊摘要及分析
1. 前香港恒生指數（HSI）收市價
- 恒生指數6月19日收報23,237.74點，單日大跌472.95點，跌幅1.99%，成交量約387萬張，連續三日下挫，累計跌幅明顯12。
- 近期恒指受地緣局勢及外圍不穩拖累，跌穿多個技術支持位，短線市場情緒偏弱13。
2. 美國HSI ADR休市
- 6月19日適逢美國Juneteenth聯邦假期，美股及ADR市場全日休市，無隔夜ADR參考價45。
- 缺乏美國ADR指引，港股今日開市參考價主要依賴本地期貨及外圍消息。
3. 牛熊證重貨區
- 截至6月19日，恒指牛熊街貨比例為熊證66%、牛證34%，市場明顯偏淡67。
- 熊證重貨區：24,100-24,199點，最新熊證數量944張，為主要壓力位。
- 牛證重貨區：23,300-23,399點，最新牛證數量1,263張，為短線重要支持區，若失守或引發進一步止蝕盤67。
4. 即時恒生指數期貨（黑期）價
- 恒生指數期貨（6月合約）夜市最新報23,185點，跌44點，較現貨低水53點，反映開市前氣氛依然偏淡8。
- 日市期貨昨日收報23,229點，單日跌423點，成交活躍，未平倉合約超過11萬張8。
- 技術面「一浪低於一浪」向淡格局已形成，短線或考驗牛證重貨區支持8。
5. 美國債息走向
- 美國10年期國債孳息6月18日報4.38%，略低於前一日的4.39%，但仍處於高位910。
- 市場預計美聯儲年內或有兩次減息，最快9月啟動，但高債息環境下，全球資金風險偏好受限109。
6. 以色列與伊朗戰爭最新進展
- 以伊衝突持續升級，伊朗19日向以色列發射約50枚導彈，造成以色列多地損毀及數十人傷亡，特拉維夫證券交易所大樓亦遭襲111213。
- 以色列空軍反擊，空襲伊朗多個核設施。雙方均有明確升級信號，區內局勢高度緊張141113。
- 港府已將以色列和伊朗外遊警示提升至最高級別，市場避險情緒濃厚1315。
港股開市前競價時段重要資訊
- 競價時段安排：9:00-9:15可輸入/更改/取消買賣盤，9:15-9:20不可取消，9:20-9:22隨機對盤，9:22-9:30暫停時段1617。
- 參考平衡價格：競價時段內的參考平衡價可反映市場即時供需，投資者可根據早段成交和買賣盤分布判斷開市走勢1617。
最新市場動態與分析
- 港股連日大跌，地緣風險（以伊衝突）和美債高息成為壓力主因，資金明顯流向防守型及避險資產。
- 技術面恒指跌穿多個支持，短線或考驗牛證重貨區（23,300點）防線，若失守恐進一步下探。
- 競價時段成交及資金流向將成為判斷今日走勢關鍵，建議投資者密切關注開市初段成交量變化。
綜合展望
- 港股今日預料低開，短線波動加劇，需關注23,300點牛證重貨區能否守穩。
- 以伊戰爭升級及美債高息環境下，市場避險情緒濃厚，建議投資者審慎部署，靈活控倉，密切關注地緣局勢及競價時段資金動向1411913。
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