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20250704 港股盤前資訊

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港股盤前資訊摘要與分析 (2025年7月4日 HKT 09:20)

一、前香港HSI收市價

恒生指數於2025年7月3日收報24,069.94點1，較前收市價下跌151.47點或0.63%12。全日波幅為23,920.00點至24,269.14點1，成交額達1,022.669億元2。港股連續五個交易日陰燭收市，險守兩萬四關口及20天線34。

二、美國HSI ADR收市價

恒指相關ADR表現呈現分化走勢5：

證券折算港元較港收市價變幅
萬國數據ADR33.34元+9.7%
美團ADR122.32元-0.4%
騰訊ADR498.93元-0.4%
滙豐ADR95.23元+0.4%
阿里巴巴美股106.64元+0.4%

中概股指數收報7,388點，上升0.4%5。值得注意的是，萬國數據繼昨日在港升7.6%後，其ADR再度發力，高於港股收市價9.7%5。

三、牛熊證重貨區分析

根據最新街貨分佈數據6：

牛證重貨區：

  • 24,500-24,599區間：街貨量485.71百萬份，相對期指張數956.13張
  • 24,600-24,699區間：街貨量427.73百萬份，相對期指張數855.46張

熊證重貨區：

  • 23,700-23,799區間：街貨量606.70百萬份，相對期指張數1,206.51張
  • 23,500-23,599區間：街貨量511.24百萬份，相對期指張數855.20張

上日收市價24,069.94點位於牛熊證重貨區之間，顯示市場對此價位的分歧較大6。

四、即時黑期價

恒指夜期收報23,991點5，較昨日收市低水79點3。美國時段恒指期貨表現偏軟，顯示海外投資者對港股短期前景謹慎78。

五、美國債息走向

美國10年期國債收益率當前報4.348%9，過去一週上升1.61%910。主要影響因素包括：

  • 強於預期的就業數據減少市場對聯儲局今年降息的預期11
  • 投資者對特朗普「大而美」法案的關注7
  • 美債拍賣需求穩健，但長期供應壓力仍存12

美債息上升對港股構成資金流出壓力，影響市場情緒13。

六、開市前競價時段重要資訊

港股開市前競價時段（09:00-09:30）14：

  • 輸入買賣盤時段：09:00-09:15
  • 不可取消時段：09:15-09:20
  • 隨機對盤時段：09:20-09:22
  • 暫停時段：對盤後-09:30

**BOSS直聘(02076)**今日開始在港交所買賣15，發售價每股66元，一手中籤率100%15。

七、北水資金流向與市場動態

北水資金昨日轉為淨流出30.47億元16，結束連續25個交易日淨流入勢頭17。主要流向：

淨買入：

  • 美團：9.9億元16
  • 中芯：4.8億元16
  • 信達生物：2.4億元16

淨流出：

  • 阿里巴巴：32.3億元17
  • 騰訊：8.9億元17

八、匯率與金管局操作

港匯持續觸發7.85弱方兌換保證18，金管局一週內四次入市，累計買入近600億港元1819。最新操作：7月3日兩度入市，合共承接296.34億港元沽盤2021，銀行體系總結餘將降至1,145.41億港元21。

九、AASTOCK股價7200、7500走勢分析

7200（FL二南方恆指）：反向槓桿ETF，跟蹤恒指表現22
7500（南方東英恒指每日反向(-2x)產品）：兩倍反向ETF，理論上恒指跌1%，該產品升2%2223

隨著恒指連續下跌，反向ETF成為部分投資者對沖工具的選擇22。

總結與展望

當前港股面臨多重挑戰：美債息上升、北水轉為流出、港匯弱勢需金管局干預。市場短期仍需關注美聯儲政策走向、中美關係發展及本地經濟數據。投資者宜謹慎管理風險，密切留意牛熊證重貨區24,000點及25,000點的支撐阻力作用。

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