Welcome to HK

20250708港股盤前資訊

—

by

admin
in

2025年7月8日港股盤前分析報告

市場概況摘要

基於恒生指數前收市價、美國HSI ADR表現、牛熊證重貨區分佈、即時期貨價格及美國債息走向的綜合分析，今日港股開市前呈現審慎樂觀的市場氛圍。

關鍵數據分析

1. 恒生指數收市表現

恒生指數昨日收報23,887.83點，微跌28.23點或0.12%1。全日在23,713.78至23,910.95點之間波動，成交額達743.28億港元1。指數在23,900點附近遇阻回落，顯示短期仍面臨技術壓力。

2. 美國HSI ADR正面訊號

美國預託證券整體表現積極，ADR恒指比例指數上升0.743%23。主要科技股表現突出：

  • 阿里巴巴: +2.24%，折合港元104.28元，預計對恒指貢獻18.567點3
  • 美團: +2.18%，折合港元119.67元，預計貢獻5.826點3
  • 百度: +3.98%，折合港元88.11元，預計貢獻4.416點3
  • 騰訊: +0.41%，折合港元501.06元，預計貢獻3.503點3

綜合ADR表現預期為恒指開市提供約38-40點的正面支撐。

3. 牛熊證重貨區警示

根據最新街貨分佈數據45：

  • 熊證重貨區: 23,500-23,699點，街貨量達1,257.74張相對期指5
  • 牛證重貨區: 24,600-24,699點，街貨量為758.36張相對期指5
  • 牛熊比例: 牛證35.6% vs 熊證64.4%，顯示市場偏向謹慎4

重貨區分佈顯示23,500點為重要支撐位，而24,600-25,000點區間將構成上方阻力。

4. 即時夜期價格

恒指期貨夜市收報23,929點，上升64點或0.27%67。期貨較現貨高水約41點，反映市場對今日開市略為樂觀7。

5. 美國債息影響分析

美國10年期國債收益率升至4.383%，週內上升2.66%89。債息上升主要受以下因素驅動：

  • 特朗普關稅政策引發通脹擔憂1011
  • 美聯儲降息預期收窄至2025年僅2次1012
  • 長期中性利率上調至3%11

高債息環境對高估值科技股構成估值壓力，但有利於金融股表現。

開市前競價時段安排

港股開市前競價時段(9:00-9:30)分為四個階段1314：

  1. 輸入買賣盤時段(9:00-9:15): 可輸入及修改競價盤和競價限價盤
  2. 對盤前時段(9:15-9:20): 接受競價盤，但不可取消或修改
  3. 隨機對盤時段(9:20-9:22): 系統隨機進行買賣盤配對
  4. 暫停時段(完成對盤後-9:30): 等待正式開市

AASTOCK 7200及7500走勢關注

  • 7200 (FL二南方恒指2倍槓桿)：跟隨恒指表現，預期受ADR正面訊號帶動1516
  • 7500 (FI二南方恒指反向2倍)：作為恒指反向產品，在指數上升時將承壓1718

投資策略建議

短期交易策略：

  • 關注23,900-24,000點阻力位突破情況
  • 23,500點為重要支撐，跌破需謹慎
  • ADR正面訊號支持開市反彈，但需觀察能否維持

板塊配置：

  • 科技股受ADR帶動有望反彈，但美債息升限制上升空間
  • 金融股受惠於高息環境，可持續關注
  • 地產股在利率高企下仍面臨壓力

風險提示：

  • 美國債息持續上升對估值構成壓力
  • 特朗普貿易政策不確定性影響市場情緒
  • 牛熊證重貨區可能加劇市場波動

總結

綜合各項指標分析，今日港股開市預期呈現溫和反彈格局，恒指有望測試24,000點阻力位。投資者應密切關注競價時段的成交情況及資金流向，並留意美債息變化對後市的持續影響。

  1. https://hk.warrants.com/tc/stock/chart/code/HSI
  2. https://www.sl886.com/adr
  3. https://www.bnppwarrant.com/tc/fx-commodities/adr
  4. https://www.bocifp.com/tc/cbbc/cbbc-hsi-os
  5. https://www.gswarrants.com.hk/tc/market/hsi-cbbc-outstanding-distribution
  6. https://www.etnet.com.hk
  7. http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/market/bmpfutures.aspx
  8. https://tw.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-US10Y/
  9. https://cn.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-US10Y/
  10. https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%AF%E6%BA%96%E6%9C%83%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6-%E6%9C%AA%E4%BE%86%E6%95%B8%E5%B9%B4%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E6%81%90%E9%87%8D%E8%BF%94%E9%9B%B6%E6%99%82%E4%BB%A3-%E7%A4%BA%E8%AD%A6%E6%BD%9B%E5%9C%A8%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E9%A2%A8%E6%9A%B4%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA-234817206.html
  11. https://www.esunsec.com.tw/article/post/326
  12. https://www.futunn.com/learn/detail-us-interest-rate-timetable-2024-will-the-fed-cut-interest-rates-to-91361-231268055
  13. https://www.mitrade.com/zh/insights/others/investment/hongkong-index-trading-time
  14. https://www.hkex.com.hk/Global/Exchange/FAQ/Securities-Market/Trading/Pre_opening-Session?sc_lang=zh-HK
  15. http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/analysis/stock-aafn/07200/0/hk-stock-news/1
  16. https://stockanalysis.com/quote/hkg/7200/
  17. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/HKEX-7500/
  18. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/7500.HK/
  19. https://www.citiwarrants.com/tc/cbbc/cbbc-outstanding
  20. https://gu.qq.com/hkHSI
  21. https://warrants.ubs.com/tc/cbbc/index-cbbc-outstanding
  22. https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EHSI/history/
  23. https://www.adr168.com
  24. https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EHSI/
  25. https://warrants.ubs.com/tc/underlying/adr
  26. https://tw.tradingview.com/symbols/HSI-HSI/
  27. http://www.aastocks.com/tc/usq/quote/adr.aspx
  28. https://hk.warrants.com/tc/cbbc/outstanding-distribution
  29. https://cn.investing.com/indices/hang-sen-40
  30. https://www.moomoo.com/hant/index/.HSIADR-US
  31. https://www.jpmhkwarrants.com/zh_hk/cbbc/cbbc-outstanding/
  32. http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/market/index/hk-index-con.aspx
  33. https://www.moomoo.com/hant/index/.HSIADR-US/institutional-ratings
  34. https://www.ig.com/cn/indices/markets-indices/hong-kong-hs42
  35. https://www.hkex.com.hk/Products/Listed-Derivatives/Equity-Index/Hang-Seng-Index-(HSI)/Hang-Seng-Index-Futures?sc_lang=zh-HK
  36. https://www.ig.com/cn/indices/markets-indices/weekend-hongkong-hs50
  37. https://www.ibff.com.tw/market/contract/tw.aspx?xy=1&xt=1
  38. https://www.hkex.com.hk/Products/Listed-Derivatives/Equity-Index/Hang-Seng-Index-(HSI)/HSI-Volatility-Index-Futures?sc_lang=zh-HK
  39. https://hk.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
  40. https://hk.investing.com/indices/hong-kong-40-futures
  41. https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Futures-and-Options-Prices/Equity-Index/Hang-Seng-Index-Futures-and-Options?sc_lang=zh-HK
  42. https://quote.eastmoney.com/q/134.HSI_M.html?jump_to_web=true
  43. https://www.hkex.com.hk/market-data/statistics/derivatives-market/market-share-data-on-hsi-futures?sc_lang=zh-HK
  44. https://www.etnet.com.hk/www/tc/futures/index.php
  45. https://www.hkex.com.hk/market-data/futures-and-options-prices/single-stock/stock-futures?sc_lang=zh-hk
  46. https://www.plus500.com/zh/instruments/hsi
  47. https://www.hkex.com.hk/chi/stat/dmstat/dayrpt/dmreport8_c.htm
  48. https://gu.sina.cn/ft/hq/hf.php?tabsource=cjzwy&symbol=HSI
  49. https://www.vbkr.com/help/topic2-us-treasury-bond-trading
  50. https://www.oanda.com/bvi-ft/lab-education/lab/us_bond_yield/
  51. https://cn.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield
  52. https://wallstreetcn.com/markets/codes/US10YR.OTC
  53. https://zh.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
  54. https://www.macromicro.me/charts/75/10-year-bond-yield-us-mid14
  55. https://www.cnyes.com/futures/html5chart/us10yy.html
  56. https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/education/jinrongjie/2025-01-03.html
  57. https://hk.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield
  58. https://www.macromicro.me/collections/9/us-market-relative/48/target-rate
  59. https://www.wantgoo.com/global/us10-yr
  60. https://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/forex/globalbd/us10yt.html
  61. https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/fed-interest-rate-decision-168
  62. https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/20%E5%B9%B4%E6%9C%9F%E7%BE%8E%E5%82%B5%E6%AE%96%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E7%BD%95%E8%A6%8B%E8%B7%8C%E7%A0%B430%E5%B9%B4%E6%9C%9F-%E9%95%B7%E6%9C%9F%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8%E7%B9%BC%E7%BA%8C%E6%89%BF%E5%A3%93-181437329.html
  63. https://zh.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
  64. https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/7200:HK
  65. http://www.aastocks.com/en/mobile/default.aspx
  66. https://www.moneyhero.com.hk/blog/zh/%E7%AB%B6%E5%83%B9%E6%99%82%E6%AE%B5-%E6%B8%AF%E8%82%A1%E7%AB%B6%E5%83%B9%E6%99%82%E6%AE%B5%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8-%E6%94%B6%E5%B8%82%E7%AB%B6%E5%83%B9-%E7%AB%B6%E5%83%B9%E7%9B%A4
  67. http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stock/InterestsDisclosure.aspx?symbol=07200
  68. http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/analysis/stock-aafn/07500/0/hk-stock-news/1
  69. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/7200.HK/
  70. https://www.vbkr.com/help/topic2-what-is-the-pre-opening-period
  71. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/7500.HK/history/
  72. https://zlglobal.htsc.com.hk/zl/course/auction-session.html
  73. https://stockanalysis.com/quote/hkg/7200/chart/
  74. https://www.etnet.com.hk/www/eng/stocks/realtime/quote.php?code=7500
  75. https://www.cpy.com.hk/hk/pre_opening.htm
  76. https://www.investing.com/etfs/csop-hang-seng-daily-2x-lev
  77. http://www.aastocks.com

Comments

發佈留言

發佈留言必須填寫的電子郵件地址不會公開。 必填欄位標示為 *

WordPress Appliance - Powered by TurnKey Linux